Photo : REUTERS/Oleksandr Klymenko
11 April 2023, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #484
War in Ukraine, Day 411:
Bakhmut: Ukraine forces report on Russia’s special forces involvement
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 10 April, Ukraine Ground Forces, Commander on the battle for Bakhmut, reported that Russia had switched to “Syrian scorched earth tactics” against the Ukraine forces to hold restraint. According to the Commander, the strong defence held by its forces has pushed Russia into involving special forces and air assault units. The situation remains to be challenging the capacity of both forces in the war.
On 10 April, the German Staff of Ukraine forces claimed eight strikes on M-24 helicopter, and six unmanned aerial vehicles along with missile troops and artilleries. They also reported that 21 strikes by Russia resulted in equipment and manpower loss in Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, Tokmak, and Zaporizhzhia area.
On 10 April, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, Deputy Minister reported on the increased artillery attacks and use of aircraft in Bakhmut. According to the Minister: “Wagner units have lost their strength, and that's why they [the invaders] use both air assault troops and special forces.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 10 April, Russia’s Deputy Chief of Russia’s aerospace force reported on Russia’s efforts to address the defence issues at the northwestern border shared with Finland. According to the Chief, stated that Russia would work in its air defences to guard its northwest.
On 10 April, RT reported on India reaching the peak point in purchasing oil from Russia. According to the report, close to 1.64 million barrels per day in March was exported. It also reported on the unaffected Swiss exports despite sanctions. Between March 2022 and February 2023 the total export accounted for 2.9 billion, which was previously 3.5 billion. The major trade lies in watches, machines, and medicines.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 10 April, in the intelligence update, the UK Ministry of Defence reported on how Russia continues to invest resources for small wins. This was observed in the operations in the Marinka and Avdiivka districts. There is also increased armoured assaults in the Marinka, which has been on the battle field since 2014.
On 10 April, the Germany government announced another package of military aid, which includes antenna mast systems, drones and ammunition. Under the new package, armoured engineer vehicles, antenna mast, reconnaissance drones,
References
“Russians switched to 'Syrian' scorched earth tactics in battle for Bakhmut – Ukraine commander,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
“Russia strengthening northwestern air defenses after Finland joins NATO,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
“War update: Ukraine's aircraft launch eight strikes against Russian invaders,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
“Maliar: Russians firing at vehicles moving towards Bakhmut,” Ukrinform, 10 April 2023
“Russia remains India’s top oil supplier – data,” RT, 10 April 2023
“Swiss pharma exports to Russia surge,” RT, 10 April 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 April 2023,” UKMOD/Twitter, 10 April 2023
“Military support for Ukraine,” bundesregierung.de, 10 April 2023
IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav
BELARUS
Lukashenko calls for security guarantee from Russia
On 10 April, the Deutsche Welle reported that Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, called on Russia to defend Belarus as its own territory, and formalize security guarantees for Minsk. The statement was made following a meeting with Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, where Lukashenko had discussed on formalizing security guarantees with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Currently, Belarus hosts a contingent of Russian forces and serves as a staging ground for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. While Lukashenko has no intention of committing troops to Russia's invasion, pledged to respond to any incursions into Belarusian territory or attempts to incite unrest. Lukashenko argued that the Budapest Memorandum's security guarantees, which Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine gave up their Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons under, had been violated by sanctions on Belarus and Russia. (“Belarus' Lukashenko asks for Russian security guarantees,” Deutsche Welle, 10 April 2023)
ESTONIA
New coalition government announces tax hikes and reforms
On 08 April, the incoming coalition government composed of the Reform Party, Eesti 200, and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) revealed their coalition agreement, which includes several tax increases such as a car tax from 2024, a revision of the state budget, and a green reform. The coalition agreement also includes a pledge to raise VAT and income tax rates from 20 per cent to 22 per cent beginning in 2024 and 2025, respectively, while raising the basic exemption to 700 euros a month. Estonia will also introduce a car tax in 2024 and abolish the VAT exception for accommodation providers. The coalition aims to renovate buildings for energy efficiency and to create a separate entity to oversee oil shale mining. Mineral resource surveys prioritized in the EU will continue, and the burning of wood in industrial power generation will end. The coalition also plans to end the burning of wood in industrial power generation and continue efforts to electrify more of Estonia's railways. The coalition agreement also includes plans to revise the division of tasks and funding model between central and local governments and privatize non-strategic, partially or fully state-owned companies. Additionally, the coalition pledges to amend the Family Benefits Act and allow Unemployment Insurance Fund's retraining support to be used for tuition payments. The coalition aims to abolish Riigikogu protection money and amend the presidential election law to allow for earlier candidate setup. Lastly, the coalition pledges to look for ways to tax international streaming platforms and seek fair taxation for global digital giants. (“Sides to incoming government unveil coalition agreement,” ERR News, 08 April 2023)
GEORGIA
Protests against the Georgian government continue against democratic backsliding
On 09 April, protesters gathered outside the Georgian parliament building in Tbilisi, expressing their objection to the government. The ruling Georgian Dream party has been accused of being too closely tied to Russia and undermining democracy by imprisoning political opponents and limiting press freedom. The protest was organized by the main opposition party in support of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is currently serving a six-year jail sentence for abuse of power, which international human rights groups deem politically motivated. Georgia’s chair of the United National Movement party, Levan Khabeishvili, who organized the protest outside the Georgian parliament, demanding the release of "political detainees" and implementation of the reforms required by Brussels. In March 2023, mass protests forced the government to abandon a bill that would have required NGOs receiving foreign funds to register as "foreign agents." Protesters at the rally waved Georgian, Ukrainian, and EU flags and displayed a banner reading "For a European future." The Georgian government has stated its commitment to joining the EU, but critics argue its actions are undermining this goal. (Christy Cooney, “Mikheil Saakashvili: Thousands join mass anti-government rally in Georgia,” BBC, 10 April 2023)
IRELAND
Riots Erupt in Northern Ireland ahead of Biden's Visit
On 10 April, ahead of the US President Joe Biden's visit, riots broke out in Northern Ireland, with masked individuals throwing Molotov cocktails and objects at a police vehicle during a parade in the city of Londonderry. Biden is scheduled to arrive in Northern Ireland on 11 April 2023; he willdeliver a speech at a university, the parade was opposing the Good Friday peace accord, on the occasion of the 25th anniversary, which marked the end of the troubles, a 30-year-long ethno-nationalist conflict that claimed the lives of around 3,700 people. However, no injuries were reported in the riots. (“Northern Ireland: Molotovs hit police ahead of Biden visit,” Deutsche Welle, 11 April 2023)
ITALY
Italian coastguard rescues over 1,200 migrants off Sicily coast
On 11 April, the BBC reported the conducting of two extensive operations by the Italian coastguard in the attempt to save approximately 1,200 migrants from overcrowded boats off the coast of Sicily. The efforts were made after the Italian coastguard observed that one of the fishing boats was carrying about 800 people while the other was transporting around 400 individuals. They have saved almost 2,000 people in earlier operations since 07 April 2023. However, at least two people lost their lives during the weekend's boat crossings, as per the German non-profit organization ResQship. Despite the right-wing coalition government's efforts to curtail irregular migration, migrant arrivals in Italy rose substantially compared to the same period last year. While one of the boats carrying 400 people was still without assistance late on Monday, an unofficial hotline for migrants in distress, Alarm Phone, informed the authorities of Italy, Greece, and Malta on Sunday. (Alys Davies, “Europe migrant crisis: Italy moves to rescue 1,200 people on boats,” BBC , 11 April 2023)
Italy to take action to boost birth rates as population declines
On 10 April, the Euractiv reported on the announcement made by Italy's Prime Minister, Georgia Meloni that her government is developing new policies to address the declining birth rate. The number of deaths in Italy has surpassed the number of births, neutralized by migration movements with foreign countries. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) reveals that as of 01 January 2023, the Italian population is approximately 58 million, a three per cent decrease from 2022, mainly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. The population decline is most pronounced in the south of the country. For the first time since Italy's unification, the number of births in 2022 fell below 400,000. The reduction is attributed to an excess of deaths over births, as well as the aging of the female population of childbearing age and reduced reproductive levels. To tackle the demographic emergency, Meloni created a ministry dedicated to family, nationality and equal opportunities. Italy’s Family Minister Eugenia Roccella confirmed that addressing the demographic crisis is a top priority for the government. (Federica Pascale, “Italy prepares measures to face declining birth rates,” Euractiv, 10 April 2023)
ECONOMY
Apple's Irish subsidiary pays EUR 7.7 billion in taxes while facing legal challenges
On 09 April, The Guardian reported that Apple's Irish subsidiary, Apple Operations International, paid 7.7 billion euros in corporation tax for the financial year ending in September, but paid out nearly three times that amount in dividends to its California-based parent company, Apple Incorporation. The Irish subsidiary's revenue increased to 223 billion USD, with a two per cent profit rise and generating almost USD 190 million per day. Dividends worth USD 20.7 billion paid to Apple are subject to US taxes, but it remains unclear which governments received these taxes, equivalent to 11 per cent of profits. The corporation tax rate of 12.5 per cent in Ireland would have amounted to a USD 8.7 billion bill. Apple has encountered legal difficulties concerning its tax arrangements in Ireland, where it has been present since 1980. In 2020, the European Commission ordered Apple to pay EUR 13 billion in back taxes to Ireland for obtaining a tax arrangement that was a form of illegal state aid between 2003 and 2014. Despite Apple's opposition, a court in Luxembourg ruled that the Commission failed to prove the allegation, and therefore Apple did not have to pay back taxes to the Irish government. (Kalyeena Makortoff, “Profits at Apple’s subsidiary in Ireland rise to $69bn,” The Guardian, 09 April 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
BBC reports on President Biden's visit to Ireland
On 11 April, the BBC reported an analysis of the reasons leading Ireland to be a noteworthy player for Joe Biden. Despite the polarization of politicians in Washington, they all agree on the importance of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in ending the 30-year conflict in Northern Ireland. The agreement is considered a triumph of diplomacy and negotiation. The US played a significant role in securing peace through the tireless efforts of Senator George Mitchell and President Bill Clinton. President Biden regards the agreement as part of his political legacy and prioritizes defending it against potential Brexit impacts. His upcoming visit to Northern Ireland aims to discuss supporting the region's economic potential, and his trip to Ireland will stress the close relationship between the two nations. In addition, President Biden's Irish roots make his visits to Belfast and Dublin significant to him and the Irish diaspora in America. The locals in Carlingford, where the president's great-great-grandfather lived, are hopeful for constructing a bridge that would improve economic links and want it named after him. (Sarah Smith, “Why Ireland is so important to Joe Biden,” BBC, 11 April 2023)
US document leak reveal shortage of ammunition for Ukraine’s air defence
On 10 April, The Guardian reported that Ukraine's air defences are at risk of running out of missiles and ammunition within a few weeks, according to Pentagon documents that have apparently been leaked. Nonetheless, it is unclear whether there have been any alterations to the usage rate since the document's release. The New York Times reported that Ukraine's Buk air defence systems, which are used along with the S-300 to protect vital sites from Russian air power, could encounter problems by mid-April. The originality of the Pentagon documents is yet to be confirmed. The South Korean opposition party called on the government to authenticate the Pentagon documents that allegedly suggest the US attempted to spy on senior officials in Seoul over arms sales. South Korea has backed international sanctions against Russia and given non-lethal aid to Kyiv but has refrained from sending weapons to the war-torn country. Its stance on not selling weapons to countries at war has been criticized as an attempt to avoid antagonizing Russia, whose support it needs to pressure North Korea into abandoning its nuclear weapons. (“Ukraine’s air defences could soon run out of missiles, apparent Pentagon leak suggests,” The Guardian, 10 April 2023)